The Dissenter's Voice

The ocassional comments, opinions, rambling and rants of a liberal dissenter in New Labour's Britain

Monday, January 07, 2008

Fasten your seat belts its going to be a bumpy ride...

With only a few hours to the New Hampshire primary vote it's looking a little grim for Hillary, however, it would be foolish indeed to write her off.

There seems little doubt that Barack Obama's Iowa momentum will give him the win on Tuesday, and indeed we can expect him to win South Carolina as well. However, you shouldn't be too surprised if the gap in New Hampshire might in the end turnout to be somewhat closer than some people are expecting. A closer than expected second place, followed by a potential win in Nevada next week and then another in Florida at the end of the month would set Hillary up well for MegaTuesday on February 5th, when over 20 states hold their primaries.

The latest CNN poll shows Obama leading Clinton by 9% in New Hampshire, while Fox News has her only 6% behind. The wall to wall Obamania in the news in the last 2 days has set Barack a very high hurdle - anything short of a landslide could (if spun right by Clinton's team) look like a stumble. Clinton could end up doing what her hubby Bill did back in 1992 and be seen as 'winning' the primary by outperforming artifically low expectations.

Don't be surprised if reports of her death turn out to have been greatly exaggerated.

A similar process looks to be happening on the Republican side. Mitt Romney is trailing in the polls, battling a resurgent John McCain - however there are signs that the GOP race is now tightening, with Romney's shameless negative campaigning paying off. Romney is trying to portray McCain as a Washington insider, despite his record as a maverick, appealing to Republicans on an anti-immigration ticket while reassuring independents that he himself as a former business man, rescuer of the Salt Lake Olympics and former Mass Governor, is the real agent of change.

I'm going to stick my head out & predict that Romney will spring a real surprise and win the New Hampshire primary tomorrow, which will throw the Republican race into total disarray. In Michigan next week any of McCain, Romney or Huckabee could win, while Guiliani is still waiting in the wings leading in Florida. There's a real chance that all 4 leading contenders could come out of MegaTuesday with enough momentum to carry to stay in the race.

We could end up seeing the first brokered or hung nominating convention since the war. If that's the case then anything could happen.


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